Lahore Shooting Incident Is "A Time For Public Diplomacy"

H/T to John Brown's Public Diplomacy Press and Blog Review for the following link about the (very) strange case of Raymond Davis:

Much is being made – maybe too much – about the Vienna Convention and its implications for diplomatic immunity. Familiar diplomatic games about the minutia of vocabulary are being played and will in most likelihood result in all too familiar results. That is exactly what one would expect in any such situation anywhere. But this is not ‘any‘ situation’; and this is not ‘anywhere‘. This is about US-Pakistan relations: there is just about nothing that the US can say or do which Pakistanis are likely to believe, and there is just about nothing that Pakistan can say or do which Americans are likely to trust. Which is why getting stuck in the intricacies of the Vienna Convention of 1963 is the exact wrong place to get stuck. This is a time for public diplomacy: certainly from the US and maybe even from Pakistan. It is not in America’s interest to be seen to be standing in the way of justice and due process. And it is not in Pakistan’s interest to be seen to conducting a flawed process of justice ... [Not handling this case with clarity and transparency] will probably bring with it more than just a little diplomatic embarrassment. Not doing so can only bring worse in the tinderbox that is US-Pakistan relations.

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Department Authorizes Voluntary Departure From Egypt (Oh, And It Also Evacuates Employees)

The Word for Today is TRANSITION.

First the Department did the expected today and authorized voluntary departure for its non-emergency employees and any citizens who wish to depart Egypt.

And then Hillary, doing the rounds of Sunday morning talk shows, signaled the voluntary departure of President Mubarak as well. The Department just sent out the following press release (complete with the photo above) about her interview with Chris Wallace:

SECRETARY CLINTON: Oh, I don’t think anyone is satisfied, least of all the Egyptian the people, who have legitimate grievances and are seeking greater political freedom, a real path to democracy, and economic opportunity. And for 30 years, the United States, through Republican and Democratic administrations, has been urging the Mubarak government to take certain steps. In fact, we’ve been urging that a vice president be appointed for decades, and that finally has happened.

But there’s a long way to go, Chris, and our hope is that we do not see violence; we see a dialogue opening that reflects the full diversity of Egyptian civil society, that has the concrete steps for democratic and economic reform that President Mubarak himself said that he was going to pursue, and that we see the respect for human rights for Egyptian people and the kind of progress that will lead to a much more open, political, and economic set of opportunities for the Egyptian people.

QUESTION: Secretary, all of your answer has been couched in terms of President Mubarak. Does that mean that the Obama Administration still backs Mubarak as the legitimate president of Egypt?

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, we have been very clear that we want to see a transition to democracy, and we want to see the kind of steps taken that will bring that about. We also want to see an orderly transition. Right now, from everything we know, the army has taken up positions. They are responding very positively thus far to the peaceful protests. But at the same time, we have a lot of reports of looting and criminal activity that is not going to be particularly helpful to what we want to see happen, and that has to be dealt with.

QUESTION: Secretary, on Tuesday, after the protests had already started in Cairo, you said this:

SECRETARY CLINTON: Our assessment is that the Egyptian Government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people.

QUESTION: A number of protestors in the streets said based on that remark and other actions that the U.S. was acting on the side of the regime, not of the protestors. Was that statement by you a mistake?

SECRETARY CLINTON: Chris, we recognize the volatility of the situation, and we are trying to do exactly what I have just said – to promote orderly transition and change that will respond to the legitimate grievances of the Egyptian people, which is what the protests are all about. I don’t think anyone wants to see instability, chaos, increasing violence. That is not in anyone’s interest.

So what President Obama and I have been doing is sending a very clear message about where the United States stands. We want to see an orderly transition to a democratic government, to economic reforms – exactly what the protestors are seeking. At the same time, we want to recognize Egypt has been our partner. They’ve been our partner in a peace process that has kept the region from war for over 30 years, which has saved a lot of lives – Egyptian lives, Israeli lives, other lives.

We want to continue to make it absolutely a American priority that – what we’ve been saying for 30 years – is that real stability rests in democracy, participation, economic opportunity. How we get from where we are to where we know the Egyptian people want to be and deserve to be is what this is about now. So we are urging the Mubarak government, which is still in power; we are urging the military, which is a very respected institution in Egypt, to do what is necessary to facilitate that kind of orderly transition.

Was that clear enough? Maybe P.J. Crowley will send one of his famous tweets tonight to reinforce that message. I suggest a riddle: "What's the difference between our Cairo embassy employees and President Mubarak? Our employees will be coming back."

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U.S. Embassy Islamabad Issues Statement With New Info About Lahore Shooting

Well, it took them a day or so to think it over, but the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad has finally issued a statement about the arrest of Raymond Allen Davis. Presumably they had consular access to Davis yesterday, and waited to get his account of his actions before coming out with the statement.

The official position is that Davis is entitled to diplomatic immunity from arrest. Reportedly, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry disagrees, although they have not yet responded to our embassy's statement with one of their own.

The embassy statement also claims that Davis was acting in self-defense, and it adds a new twist to substantiate that claim. It says the two Pakistanis Davis killed had robbed others at gun point a few minutes before in the same area.

Here's the statement:

U.S. Embassy Calls for Release of American Diplomat

January 29, 2011

Islamabad - The United States Embassy in Pakistan calls for the immediate release of a U.S. diplomat unlawfully detained by authorities in Lahore.

The diplomat, assigned to the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, has a U.S. diplomatic passport and Pakistani visa valid until June 2012.

On January 27, the diplomat acted in self-defense when confronted by two armed men on motorcycles. The diplomat had every reason to believe that the armed men meant him bodily harm. Minutes earlier, the two men, who had criminal backgrounds, had robbed money and valuables at gunpoint from a Pakistani citizen in the same area.

When detained, the U.S. diplomat identified himself to police as a diplomat and repeatedly requested immunity under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Local police and senior authorities failed to observe their legal obligation to verify his status with either the U.S. Consulate General in Lahore or the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad. Furthermore, the diplomat was formally arrested and remanded into custody, which is a violation of international norms and the Vienna Convention, to which Pakistan is a signatory.

We regret that this incident resulted in loss of life.

We greatly value the cooperation and partnership between Pakistan and the United States, which is vital to the interests of both countries. The U.S. Embassy is committed to working closely with the Pakistani government to secure the immediate release of the diplomat, as required under Pakistani and international law.

Pakistani news media are, indeed, reporting today that the two dead men had been on a crime spree minutes before they encountered Davis. Of course, Davis could not have known about that when he saw the two men park their motorcycle in front of his car, so he still bears the burden of showing he was in fear for his life when he opened fire on them. But this information certainly helps his case.

Meanwhile, though it was initially reported that the two deceased motorcyclists had no criminal record, the police registered FIRs [First Information Reports, which are complaints filed by Pakistani police when they receive information about the commission of a crime] by victims against them posthumously on Friday, police sources told The Express Tribune.

The complainants, Doctor Farzand and Sheharyar Malik, in a written application, state that the two had robbed them of their mobiles and cash just before the incident and were fleeing.

As evidence, the two have referred to phone logs of calls made to Rescue 1-5 about the incident right after it happened. The police say that two mobile phones were recovered from the deceased which matched the description of those the applicants had complained to 1-5 had been stolen.

However, the police had also shown the recovery of foreign currency from the deceased, which they say had also been looted. On the other hand, there is yet to be a complaint regarding the theft of foreign currency on the day of the incident.

In the FIR registered against Davis, the police have also included charges of carrying an illegal weapon – a Glock pistol and two magazines. The police also recovered a digital camera, a phone tracker with a charger.

-- snip --

Conversely, the police so far have no information about the other vehicle that came to rescue Davis and crushed a motorcyclist – Ibadullah – in the process. After killing the man, the vehicle fled from the scene. Davis did not disclose who was heading to his rescue, but did tell the police that, after the incident, he telephoned his Regional Security Officer who might have sent some officials for his rescue.

A police officer, on condition of anonymity, said that they had, through the Lahore Capital City Police Officer, sent a formal request to Pakistan’s foreign office to contact the US Consulate to identify those in the vehicle for their arrest.

Today's WaPo story on the embassy statement includes some new, unattributed, background about Davis and his employment in Pakistan.

Davis arrived in Pakistan in September 2009 as a "technical adviser" to the consulate in Lahore, according to sources who said his job was to assist in vetting visa applicants. His initial three-month diplomatic visa, listing his birth year as 1974 and a home address in Las Vegas, has been repeatedly extended at U.S. request since then.

The CIA has declined to comment on whether Davis worked for the agency, although Pakistani officials said they do not believe he is an intelligence agent. Under special budget provisions, the State Department has given diplomatic status to hundreds of temporary employees hired in recent years, some of them through contractors, to bolster the ranks of rapidly expanding embassies in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Vetting visa applicants? OK. Does Lahore even have visa services? I don't know. But it does have a new Public Diplomacy team, and my heart goes out to those poor people.

More to come.

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Lahore: Murder Charges Filed, Consulate Agrees to Make Second Employee Available to Police

The U.S. Consulate Lahore employee remains in police custody, and charges were filed against him today. A surprising new development is that, according to the WaPo story excerpted below, the Consulate has agreed to "turn the driver of the second vehicle over to police." That second vehicle struck and killed a third Pakistani while trying to get to the scene of the shooting. It seems possible that charges could be filed against that driver, as well.

An American official will face murder charges for fatally shooting two Pakistanis during an alleged robbery in the eastern city of Lahore, a prosecutor said Friday.

The American official, an employee at the U.S. consulate in Lahore, appeared in court Friday, one day after the shootout at a busy intersection, after which a second consular vehicle hit and killed a third man.

A Lahore court ordered the American, whom Pakistani authorities identified as Raymond Davis [TSB note: he was alternatively identified in some reports yesterday as "Steve Davis" and "Raymond David"; the WaPo is using "Davis" today] , to remain in police custody for six days. Rana Sanaullah, the law minister for Punjab province, of which Lahore is the capital, told reporters that Davis [sic] had also been charged with illegal weapons possession.

-- snip --

The incident has generated enormous media coverage in this fervently anti-American nation. It is being depicted as as an illustration of Americans' disregard for the common people of Pakistan, a key U.S. ally, and as a test case for whether the unpopular Pakistani government has the will to stand up to its U.S. sponsors.

-- snip --

Many Pakistani reports have questioned why the U.S. consular employee, who according to some local press accounts told Pakistani authorities he was a "technical adviser" at the consulate, was armed.

The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad has remained nearly silent, saying only that the person involved in the shootout was an American employee at the consulate. Officials have declined to confirm the name of the employee or say what position he holds, why he was carrying a gun and whether they believe he has diplomatic immunity.

The CIA declined to comment Thursday on whether the suspect worked for the agency.

Much about the chain of events surrounding the shooting remained uncertain Friday. Sanaullah said Davis told authorities he had withdrawn money from an ATM before two men on a motorbike approached his white sedan at a traffic light and displayed pistols.

After the shooting, another consular vehicle hit and killed a motorcyclist. It was unclear whether that vehicle had come to retrieve Davis from the scene or was traveling behind him. Accounts also varied as to whether the vehicle hit the third man before arriving at the shooting scene or as it sped away, with Davis inside.

Sanaullah said the American consulate in Lahore had agreed to a police request to turn the driver of the second vehicle over to police.

Pakistani news media and official sources put out a multitude of sometimes inconsistent statements yesterday, but today the story line seems to be coherent. It looks like the Pakistani motorcyclists were indeed armed, but they may not have been intending to attack the consulate employee. He may have been overly reactive to what appeared to be a classic ambush scenario; the Pakistanis may have likewise expected to be attacked for reasons of their own. It may be just this simple and tragic: two jumpy parties came in contact with each other, and the American was the first to fire.

I received an anonymous comment this morning that presented an explanation of the incident which I find 100% plausible, and which agrees with every fact about the event that I can verify. Here it is:

Here are the facts: The two people he shot dead were returning from a court hearing where one of them was a witness in a murder case. One of the murder victim’s brother had been murdered a month ago and he was carrying a licensed handgun for his own protection, fearing for his own life. Raymond David, the US Consulate ‘Technical Advisor’ comes out of a bank after withdrawing some money from an ATM machine. It just so happens that these two guys on the motorcycle pass by his car as he leaves the bank. At a traffic stop, Raymond sees the sidearm of one of the guys and pulls out his gun as a precuation. The guy on the motorcycle, who himself is paranoid about his own life, sees Raymond and the gun and grabs his own piece. At that moment Raymond fires 14 shots through the windshield of his car at both the motorcycle guys killing both. They were shot from behind. He then takes pictures of the two dead people and starts to leave the scene of the crime. At this moment eye-witnesses start to chase him. Raymond calls for back up. A back-up vehicle arrives in minutes and sees the traffic jam and takes the incoming lane on the wrong side to get to Raymond. In the process it hits two pedestrians, one of whom is killed. It then speeds away (i.e. hit and run). In the meantime a traffic warden and eyewitnesses stop Raymond’s car, which is blocked by a traffic jam. A couple of angry people shatter his rear window and his back light. The traffic warden gets into Raymond’s car and takes him to the local police station.

Granted, that is an account from an anonymous source. But, a 'blue-on-blue' scenario sounds all too believable to me.

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WaPo's Spytalk Quotes Fred Burton

A commenter kindly sent me a link to today's WaPo SpyTalk column, which quotes a retired Diplomatic Security counterterrorism specialist who speculates "that the American involved in a fatal shootout in Lahore, Pakistan, was the victim of a spy meeting gone awry, not the target of a robbery or car-jacking attempt."

"It looks like an informant meet gone bad more than a car-jacking attempt,” said Fred Burton, a former deputy chief of the U.S. Diplomatic Security Service’s counter-terrorism division.

Early reports were sketchy. Many said the American, identified in the Pakistani press variously as Raymond David, or just “Davis,” had shot two armed men on a motorcycle “in self defense” as they approached his car in a robbery attempt. As the American sped away, another Pakistani on a motorcycle was killed, according to the reports.

-- snip --

According to Burton, who worked on several major terrorism cases in the 1980s and 1990s, the incident showed that David “had outstanding situational awareness to recognize the attack unfolding and shoot the other men.”

“It shows a high degree of firearms discipline and training,” Burton added. “Either the consulate employee's route was compromised by terrorist or criminal surveillance, or it's feasible he was set up in some sort of double-agent operation, if this wasn't a criminal motive.”

Fred Burton works for a private sector threat analysis company, and he is of necessity a promoter of both himself and his company, STRATFOR. Here's his self-description of his background. Others have been less than impressed by him. Personally, I think STRATFOR's reports are perfectly serviceable private sector threat analysis, but you have to take a lot of Burton's stuff down a few levels of melodrama.

Someone sent me STRATFOR's report on the Lahore incident this afternoon, and I've copied excepts from it below.

Three Pakistani locals were killed in Lahore on Jan. 27 in an incident involving a U.S. consular employee. The employee, identified by the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad as Raymond Davis, said he fired in self-defense, according to police reports. Details are still sketchy, and the investigation is ongoing. However, based on initial accounts, it appears that Davis was practicing good situational awareness and thwarted a robbery or possibly an assassination.

In Davis’ account of the incident (relayed via Lahore police to Pakistani media), he said he noticed several motorcycle riders approaching his vehicle, and one pulled out a pistol. At that point, Davis shot and killed one of the motorcyclists with a 9 mm pistol. A second wounded motorcyclist reportedly died later in the hospital, and a vehicle fleeing the scene (it is unclear if it belonged to Davis or another consular employee) hit and killed a bystander.

The shooting took place at a prominent roundabout (there are conflicting reports as to whether it occurred at the Mazang or the Qartaba roundabout) in the afternoon, with many witnesses who allegedly corroborated Davis’ account.

--snip --

The situation Davis was in is a common one for quick robberies and is also used for assassinations: He was in his vehicle, stopped at a traffic light, and vulnerable to gunmen on motorcycles who could quickly maneuver next to him and flee the scene just as quickly. This assassination tactic has been used in Pakistan, (a general was assassinated in Islamabad in 2009), Yemen, Greece (the November 17 militant group killed multiple U.S. officials this way during the 1970s and 1980s) and elsewhere. It is possible that this attack was a robbery attempt (very common in Lahore), but since the target was a U.S. Consulate employee in a high state of alert (indicating he was trained to maintain situational awareness), assassination cannot be ruled out.

That Davis was driving alone in an unmarked vehicle (no diplomatic plates or flags, meaning that it was meant to blend in) without the standard security presence and while wearing a wireless headset indicates that he could have been acting covertly. Additionally, according to eyewitnesses Davis took pictures of the individuals he had shot, indicating that he knew to collect evidence (and thus was well-trained and prepared).

That last paragraph strikes me as unwarranted and way too dramatic. As those who are posted in critical-threat places know, it is not uncommon for U.S. diplomatic vehicles to have nondescript local license plates in an attempt to lower their public profiles. There is no need to read any covert / intelligence meaning into that. Likewise for the use of a headset or other wireless device, or the fact that Davis used a camera.

The simplest, and the least dramatic, explanation is that Davis was the target of a criminal attack, such as a robbery or carjacking, which as STRATFOR says are common in Lahore. Davis did indeed maintain 'situational awareness' and so forth, but that, too, is not uncommon today for U.S. mission personnel of all kinds.

I see no reason to suppose that Davis was any sort of exotic type such as an intelligence agent, military Special Forces, or a security guy.

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Lahore Post-Shooting Video

Here's a poor-quality video, probably taken with a cell phone, showing Raymond Davis and the crowd of Lahorees who surrounded his car after he shot two men he believed were attacking him. You can see the hostility of the crowd. Some time after this video ends Davis was rescued by staff from the consulate, in the course of which a pedestrian was killed when he was struck by the consulate's vehicle.

A couple observations.

First, the video clearly shows five to seven penetrations - bullet holes - in the windshield of Davis's car. That fits with the scenario given out by Pakistani police spokesmen: Davis was stopped at a traffic signal when he saw two men on a motorcycle blocking his path, saw a gun, and opened fire on them without further ado. BTW, firing a pistol through a windshield is perfectly feasible, and is the preferred last resort in that situation. The only odd thing is that there were so few bullet holes, especially given that the type of pistol he reportedly used holds a 15-round magazine.

Second, it appears that Davis is wearing a blue-bordered photo ID badge on a cord around his neck. That clinches the case that he is not some super spook sneaking around Lahore on a classified mission. More like someone who ducked out of the consulate at lunch hour to run an errand.

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Curious Incident in Lahore, Pakistan

First reports are invariably wrong to greater or lesser extents, so take the following news with a grain of salt.

Pakistani news media are reporting that a U.S. citizen, whom they describe as an employee of U.S. Consulate Lahore, shot two Pakistanis to death Thursday night in self-defense, and that a third Pakistani was killed in a traffic accident caused by a consulate vehicle that came to the scene to extricate the U.S. citizen from a crowd that formed after the shooting.

So far, I've seen no official confirmation that the American involved, who was identified by local press reports as Raymond Davis, actually is an employee of the consulate, the Department of State, or any other U.S. government agency. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. Maybe he's a contractor, maybe a TDYer. All I know is that I didn't find the name "Raymond Davis" in the current Key Officers List.

Whatever else he is, he is the subject of a big public relations problem at the moment.

Details of the incident vary a bit from source to source, but here's the version carried on MSNBC this morning:

LAHORE, Pakistan — An American consular employee traveling in a car in Pakistan shot and killed two armed men on a motorcycle as they tried to rob him on Thursday, police said. A pedestrian was also killed by a speeding American car trying to help, an officer said.

The employee, who the U.S. embassy said worked for the American consulate in Lahore, was sitting in his car at a traffic signal when two men chasing him aboard a motorcycle opened fire.

The man returned the fire in self-defense, police told Reuters, wounding the two attackers, who both died later in the hospital. Police said a consulate car that came to the scene later struck and killed a pedestrian.

Aslam Tarim, Lahore police chief, said in broadcast comments that the U.S. national had been taken into custody at a police station.

Police official Omar Saeed had earlier told Reuters the man had opened fire in self-defense.

"We are investigating whether it was a robbery attempt or something else," he said.

GEO-TV has video of the public protests that followed the incident.



Reuters has a good still photo of the car that is in police custody today.














I see an ordinary (non-armored) sedan with ordinary (non-diplomatic) plates, and its rear window shattered. Reportedly, the front windshield was punctured in several places. I'm sure the police will be able to determine whether the car provides any forensic evidence that clarifies what happened.

Several local news media are reporting that police have also taken into custody a pistol and three cell phones.

One local press report added a couple interesting tidbits about the incident:

Witnesses said they had seen the two armed trying to hold up the US national. They said they had then seen the American firing at the two men. The US national took photos of the two men after they fell to the ground on being hit by bullets, the witnesses said.

The American spoke in Urdu and told people who surrounded his car that he had acted in self-defence, they said. People protested in the area after the incident and burnt tyres to block roads.

So what do we have here, assuming the news reports are accurate? A U.S. citizen associated with the consulate who was driving himself around Lahore alone in a local vehicle, and who reacted to an apparent ambush by firing at two armed men. After which he had the presence of mind to photograph the scene and then to explain himself to the crowd of locals who had come to see what had happened.

And that's all I have to say about that, to quote Forrest Gump. I'm sure an official statement from the embassy or the Department spokesman will come later today.

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